Valued Customers
LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs
| Slot | Player | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jacoby Brissett | ATL | 18.8 | 21.0 | BOOM | MEDIUM |
| RB | Bucky Irving | CAR | 15.2 | 14.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| RB | Omarion Hampton | DAL | 13.2 | 13.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | LAR | 19.9 | 23.6 | BOOM | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jameson Williams | PIT | 15.9 | 22.0 | BOOM | MEDIUM |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | NYJ | 9.1 | 9.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| K | Jason Myers | LAR | 8.1 | 2.0 | BUST | MEDIUM |
| D/ST | Chargers D/ST | DAL | 4.2 | 12.0 | BOOM | MEDIUM |
| WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | ATL | 14.2 | 15.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
Semi-finals roster optimization - maximize ceiling for championship week positioning
Most consistent TE on waivers. Rolling avg (10.5) above season avg (9.9). Better floor than Juwan Johnson who faces wind at MetLife. Week 17: vs BUF (...
SCORCHING HOT trend - rolling avg 11.1 vs season avg 3.6 (208% improvement). Week 17 vs DET is tough but IND matchup this week is solid. Drop Rams D/S...
Already played TNF - check actual score. Deep threat with big-play upside. Neutral trend shows consistency. Could be WR insurance if Rashee Rice ruled...
⚠️ Avoid: Keenan Allen, Oronde Gadsden II, Quentin Johnston, Emanuel Wilson
See Waivers tab for full analysis and injury opportunities.
Week 16 playoff semifinal against 4th and pinches (10-5). Our 9-6 Valued Customers face a critical matchup with ESPN projecting us as 2-point underdogs (123.5 vs 125.5). Key advantage: Jacoby Brissett has emerged as a matchup-proof QB3, posting 20+ points in every Arizona start, facing a vulnerable Falcons defense in a dome. The Chargers D/ST draw the best matchup in fantasy against a broken Cowboys offense (32nd worst). Concerns center on Rashee Rice's ceiling capped by Mahomes injury (Minshew starts) and MHJ remaining OUT with a heel injury.
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | LLM | vs LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR | ✓ 23.6 | 19.9 | 23.6 | 0.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | K | ✓ 2.0 | 8.1 | 2.0 | 0.0 |
| Rams D/ST (bench) | D/ST | BE | ✓ 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 0.0 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB | 18.8 | 21.0 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB | 15.2 | 14.0 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | RB | 13.2 | 13.0 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | WR | 13.1 | 13.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE | 9.1 | 9.0 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | RB/WR/TE | 15.9 | 22.0 |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 4.2 | 12.0 |
| Devin Singletary (bench) | RB | BE | 7.5 | 4.0 |
| Isiah Pacheco (bench) | RB | BE | 9.3 | 6.0 |
| Jayden Reed (bench) | WR | BE | 11.2 | 13.0 |
| Jordan Love (bench) | QB | BE | 17.3 | 15.0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) | WR | BE | 14.2 | 15.0 |
| Tyjae Spears (bench) | RB | BE | 8.7 | 10.0 |
| Rashee Rice (bench) | WR | IR | 0.0 | 5.0 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | LLM | vs ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colby Parkinson (bench) | TE | BE | ✓ 4.1 | 9.6 | --- | -5.5 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | QB | QB | 16.6 | --- |
| Michael Carter | RB | RB | 11.0 | --- |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | RB | 15.2 | --- |
| DK Metcalf | WR | WR | 13.5 | --- |
| Michael Wilson | WR | WR | 13.4 | --- |
| Trey McBride | TE | TE | 16.8 | --- |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | RB/WR/TE | 23.9 | --- |
| Harrison Butker | K | K | 8.0 | --- |
| Jaguars D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 5.6 | --- |
| Aaron Rodgers (bench) | QB | BE | 14.8 | --- |
| Darren Waller (bench) | TE | BE | 9.3 | --- |
| Jordan Addison (bench) | WR | BE | 10.5 | --- |
| Kareem Hunt (bench) | RB | BE | 11.0 | --- |
| Rome Odunze (bench) | WR | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Romeo Doubs (bench) | WR | BE | 9.6 | --- |
Projections: ESPN 17.3 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 21% BOOM / 53% MODERATE. XGB: 27% BOOM / 21% BUST. SNOW GAME (100% precip, 28F, 10mph wind). Weather suppresses passing upside significantly. Despite decent game total (46.5), snow conditions favor running game. Mode: MODERATE (weather-adjusted down). Projection: 15.0 pts (within MODERATE range 9-24).
Context: O/U: 46.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 21%
XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DEN | 14.8 | 17.0 | 13.9 | -0.9 |
| 14 | CHI | 17.6 | 18.0 | 19.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 15.7 | 18.2 | 25.8 | +10.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 17.4 | - | 7.1 | -10.4 |
| 11 | NYG | 16.3 | - | 17.7 | +1.3 |
| 10 | PHI | 17.0 | - | 7.8 | -9.1 |
| 9 | CAR | 18.1 | - | 9.0 | -9.1 |
| 8 | PIT | 17.1 | - | 28.3 | +11.2 |
| 7 | ARI | 17.4 | - | 13.4 | -4.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 19.3 | - | 15.0 | -4.4 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 18.6 | - | 26.3 | +7.7 |
| 3 | CLE | 16.0 | - | 11.1 | -4.9 |
| 2 | WSH | 17.6 | - | 20.9 | +3.3 |
| 1 | DET | 14.9 | - | 15.9 | +1.0 |
Projections: ESPN 18.8 | LLM 21.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 74% BOOM (historical). XGB: 14% BOOM (this week). MC heavily favors boom, XGB conservative. Vegas #5 QB (18.3), game total 48.5. High-scoring game script + dome environment. Trust MC historical pattern given favorable game environment. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 21.0 pts (within BOOM range 17-32).
Context: O/U: 48.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 74%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 37% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | HOU | 13.9 | 16.0 | 20.6 | +6.7 |
| 14 | LAR | 15.3 | 19.0 | 19.0 | +3.7 |
| 13 | TB | 17.2 | 20.5 | 19.6 | +2.4 |
| 12 | JAX | 16.7 | - | 18.7 | +1.9 |
| 11 | SF | 17.9 | - | 21.9 | +3.9 |
| 10 | SEA | 15.3 | - | 19.4 | +4.2 |
| 9 | DAL | 19.4 | - | 24.8 | +5.4 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 16.6 | - | 19.8 | +3.2 |
| 6 | IND | 13.4 | - | 20.7 | +7.3 |
| 5 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.2 | +0.2 |
| 1 | NO | 0.1 | - | 0.0 | -0.1 |
Projections: ESPN 15.2 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 17% BOOM / 59% MODERATE. XGB: 13% BOOM / 48% BUST. Clear lead back, good game total (45.5), clear weather. CAR defense rank 22 (below average for RBs). XGB overly pessimistic historically. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14.0 pts (within MODERATE range 7-20).
Context: O/U: 45.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 59% | BOOM: 17%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | ATL | 15.2 | 14.0 | 8.1 | -7.1 |
| 14 | NO | 16.4 | 16.0 | 16.1 | -0.3 |
| 13 | ARI | 11.8 | 12.0 | 16.1 | +4.3 |
| 12 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | NE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | NO | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | PHI | 17.5 | - | 25.5 | +8.0 |
| 3 | NYJ | 17.9 | - | 13.9 | -4.0 |
| 2 | HOU | 15.9 | - | 18.1 | +2.2 |
| 1 | ATL | 17.3 | - | 14.5 | -2.8 |
Projections: ESPN 8.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 14% BOOM / 61% MODERATE. XGB: 16% BOOM / 37% BUST. ELITE matchup vs KC (rank 6 - 6th most pts allowed to RBs). BUT low game total (37.5) limits opportunities. Conflicting signals - great matchup, bad environment. Mode: MODERATE (matchup upside capped by low total). Projection: 10.0 pts (within MODERATE range 5-14).
Context: O/U: 37.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 37% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SF | 10.0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | -4.4 |
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | 8.4 | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | - | 6.5 | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | - | 8.4 | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | - | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | - | 17.2 | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | - | 7.0 | -0.8 |
| 6 | LV | 5.6 | - | 9.0 | +3.4 |
| 5 | ARI | 5.4 | - | 1.4 | -4.0 |
| 4 | HOU | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 13.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 25% BOOM / 43% MODERATE. XGB: 9% BOOM / 59% BUST. Highest game total (49.5) but DAL defense rank 25 (tough). Game script favors passing but dome environment helps. Mode: MODERATE (high floor). Projection: 13.0 pts (within MODERATE range 7-17).
Context: O/U: 49.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 59% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | KC | 11.7 | 10.0 | 7.5 | -4.2 |
| 14 | PHI | 12.1 | 8.0 | 14.7 | +2.6 |
| 13 | LV | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | MIA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | WSH | 18.6 | - | 13.0 | -5.6 |
| 4 | NYG | 16.7 | - | 27.5 | +10.8 |
| 3 | DEN | 12.2 | - | 24.9 | +12.7 |
| 2 | LV | 15.7 | - | 3.5 | -12.2 |
| 1 | KC | 14.7 | - | 8.1 | -6.6 |
Projections: ESPN 7.5 | LLM 4.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 18% BOOM / 61% BUST. XGB: 10% BOOM / 58% BUST. Both models agree on bust risk. MIN defense rank 17 (average), dome environment helps. Limited snap share and touches hurt floor. Mode: BUST. Projection: 4.0 pts (within BUST range 0-8).
Context: O/U: 43.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%
XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 59% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | WSH | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.4 | -8.4 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NE | 6.3 | - | 19.2 | +12.9 |
| 12 | DET | 9.9 | - | 4.7 | -5.2 |
| 11 | GB | 9.6 | - | 17.7 | +8.1 |
| 10 | CHI | 9.7 | - | 10.3 | +0.6 |
| 9 | SF | 5.5 | - | 7.1 | +1.6 |
| 8 | PHI | 1.2 | - | 3.8 | +2.6 |
| 7 | DEN | 0.8 | - | 0.2 | -0.6 |
| 6 | PHI | 1.0 | - | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | NO | 6.0 | - | 3.4 | -2.6 |
| 4 | LAC | 7.4 | - | 2.8 | -4.6 |
| 3 | KC | 1.1 | - | 1.1 | +0.0 |
| 2 | DAL | 3.2 | - | 1.0 | -2.2 |
| 1 | WSH | 3.5 | - | 0.9 | -2.6 |
Projections: ESPN 9.3 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 3% BOOM / 70% BUST. XGB: 12% BOOM / 60% BUST. Both models agree on bust. Low game total (37.5), TEN defense rank 26 (solid vs RBs). Committee usage limits upside. Mode: BUST. Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range 0-11).
Context: O/U: 37.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 59% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 7.2 | - | 2.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 8.3 | - | 3.0 | -5.3 |
| 13 | DAL | 9.7 | - | 5.3 | -4.4 |
| 12 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | WSH | 11.4 | - | 5.8 | -5.6 |
| 7 | LV | 11.5 | - | 12.4 | +0.9 |
| 6 | DET | 8.9 | - | 6.1 | -2.8 |
| 5 | JAX | 7.7 | - | 8.6 | +0.9 |
| 4 | BAL | 9.2 | - | 12.8 | +3.6 |
| 3 | NYG | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 2 | PHI | 10.9 | - | 3.9 | -7.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 12.8 | - | 4.8 | -8.0 |
Projections: ESPN 19.9 | LLM 23.6 (BOOM)
Reasoning: GAME COMPLETED - Actual score: 23.6 pts (BOOM). TNF performance exceeded ESPN projection of 19.9.
Context: O/U: 42.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | IND | 20.6 | 22.0 | 18.3 | -2.3 |
| 14 | ATL | 20.9 | 22.0 | 28.1 | +7.2 |
| 13 | MIN | 21.9 | 24.0 | 4.3 | -17.6 |
| 12 | TEN | 21.3 | - | 37.1 | +15.8 |
| 11 | LAR | 23.0 | - | 20.6 | -2.4 |
| 10 | ARI | 22.0 | - | 20.3 | -1.7 |
| 9 | WSH | 24.5 | - | 22.0 | -2.5 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | HOU | 20.0 | - | 26.3 | +6.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 17.9 | - | 30.2 | +12.3 |
| 5 | TB | 15.9 | - | 27.2 | +11.3 |
| 4 | ARI | 16.4 | - | 13.0 | -3.4 |
| 3 | NO | 15.5 | - | 20.6 | +5.1 |
| 2 | PIT | 14.4 | - | 18.3 | +3.9 |
| 1 | SF | 14.7 | - | 19.4 | +4.7 |
Projections: ESPN 13.1 | LLM 13.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 14% BOOM / 49% BUST / 37% MODERATE. XGB: 17% BOOM / 22% BUST. Practicing Thursday (ankle/foot). ATL defense rank 26. Good game total (48.5). May see increased targets if MHJ limited. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 13.0 pts (within MODERATE range 9-19).
Context: O/U: 48.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | NO | 13.2 | 11.0 | 4.5 | -8.7 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 13.0 | 11.3 | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | - | 11.5 | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | - | 33.0 | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | - | 11.0 | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | - | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | - | 16.9 | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | - | 6.3 | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | - | 17.9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | - | 13.3 | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | - | 10.2 | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | - | 7.8 | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | - | 16.0 | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | - | 11.8 | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 14.2 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM (historical) / 43% MODERATE. XGB: 42% BOOM (this week) / 23% BUST. UPDATED: MHJ practiced all 3 days (limited), told media "heel is good enough to go" - EXPECTED TO PLAY [azcardinals.com]. ATL defense has collapsed vs WRs - surrendered 7 games of 15+ pts over last 5 weeks, CB Mike Hughes OUT [profootballnetwork.com]. Game total 47.0 (high scoring expected). BUT first game back after 2 weeks = snap count likely. Mode: MODERATE (injury caution despite favorable matchup). Projection: 15.0 pts (within MODERATE range 6-18).
Context: O/U: 48.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | HOU | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 14 | LAR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | TB | 13.7 | 14.0 | 12.9 | -0.8 |
| 12 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | SEA | 13.3 | - | 14.3 | +1.0 |
| 9 | DAL | 13.3 | - | 22.6 | +9.3 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 12.5 | - | 7.8 | -4.7 |
| 6 | IND | 11.9 | - | 5.2 | -6.7 |
| 5 | TEN | 12.8 | - | 13.8 | +1.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 11.3 | - | 18.6 | +7.3 |
| 3 | SF | 12.7 | - | 7.4 | -5.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 14.0 | - | 4.7 | -9.3 |
| 1 | NO | 13.9 | - | 18.1 | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM 5.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 39% BOOM / 37% BUST. XGB: 24% BOOM / 31% BUST. CONCUSSION PROTOCOL - not practicing Wed/Thu. TEN defense rank 29 (3rd toughest vs WR). Low game total (37.5). Per Reddit: "Rashee Rice (concussion) is not practicing on Thursday" [r/fantasyfootball]. HIGH RISK - may be OUT. IF ACTIVE: significantly limited effectiveness expected. Mode: BUST. Projection: 5.0 pts (within BUST range, reflecting injury risk). Monitor Friday report.
Context: O/U: 37.5
MC (Historical): OUT: 100%
XGB (This Week): Boom 24% | Bust 31% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 17.2 | 11.0 | 12.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.7 |
| 13 | DAL | 18.1 | 18.4 | 29.4 | +11.3 |
| 12 | IND | 17.6 | - | 24.1 | +6.5 |
| 11 | DEN | 16.4 | - | 9.8 | -6.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 18.4 | - | 18.6 | +0.2 |
| 8 | WSH | 17.2 | - | 25.5 | +8.2 |
| 7 | LV | 13.7 | - | 23.2 | +9.5 |
| 6 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | BAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 22.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 29% BOOM / 44% MODERATE. XGB: 12% BOOM / 43% BUST. LINEUP LOCK per ESPN. Highest game total (52.5) in favorable passing environment. PIT defense rank 21 (below average). MC shows boom upside, XGB overly conservative historically. Detroit passing attack elite. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 22.0 pts (within BOOM range 17-30).
Context: O/U: 52.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 29%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 44% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAR | 13.9 | 18.0 | 26.4 | +12.5 |
| 14 | DAL | 13.8 | 17.3 | 17.3 | +3.5 |
| 13 | GB | 11.8 | 15.1 | 26.9 | +15.1 |
| 12 | NYG | 12.9 | - | 0.0 | -12.9 |
| 11 | PHI | 12.6 | - | 19.7 | +7.1 |
| 10 | WSH | 12.1 | - | 23.9 | +11.8 |
| 9 | MIN | 11.0 | - | 16.6 | +5.6 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | TB | 13.2 | - | 0.0 | -13.2 |
| 6 | KC | 10.7 | - | 18.6 | +7.9 |
| 5 | CIN | 11.8 | - | 2.0 | -9.8 |
| 4 | CLE | 10.7 | - | 5.7 | -5.0 |
| 3 | BAL | 12.9 | - | 6.3 | -6.6 |
| 2 | CHI | 13.0 | - | 18.8 | +5.8 |
| 1 | GB | 12.9 | - | 6.6 | -6.3 |
Projections: ESPN 11.2 | LLM 13.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 10% BOOM / 66% MODERATE. XGB: 13% BOOM / 52% BUST. CONFLICTING: Elite matchup (CHI rank 30 vs WR) BUT snow game (100% precip). Bears WRs Odunze/Burden OUT - Packers may throw to stay ahead. Snow typically hurts passing, but elite matchup too good. Mode: MODERATE (weather-adjusted from potential boom). Projection: 13.0 pts (within MODERATE range 7-20).
Context: O/U: 46.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 10%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DEN | 10.0 | - | 10.5 | +0.5 |
| 14 | CHI | 7.7 | - | 9.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | ARI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | CLE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | WSH | 11.3 | - | 0.0 | -11.3 |
| 1 | DET | 11.2 | - | 13.5 | +2.3 |
Projections: ESPN 9.1 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 30% BOOM / 45% MODERATE. XGB: 18% BOOM / 57% BUST. Wind game at MetLife (12mph sustained, 23mph gusts). NYJ defense rank 16 (average vs TE). Wind affects deep balls but TE targets often intermediate. Also has 250k bonus for 8 catches - motivation. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts (within MODERATE range 5-13).
Context: O/U: 40.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 30%
XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 56% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | CAR | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.0 | -2.7 |
| 14 | TB | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.8 | -1.9 |
| 13 | MIA | 8.7 | 11.0 | 8.9 | +0.2 |
| 12 | ATL | 9.3 | - | 10.6 | +1.3 |
| 11 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | CAR | 8.9 | - | 19.2 | +10.2 |
| 9 | LAR | 8.3 | - | 12.1 | +3.8 |
| 8 | TB | 9.6 | - | 10.3 | +0.7 |
| 7 | CHI | 7.5 | - | 12.9 | +5.4 |
| 6 | NE | 7.9 | - | 1.5 | -6.4 |
| 5 | NYG | 7.9 | - | 3.7 | -4.2 |
| 4 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 3 | SEA | 10.6 | - | 11.1 | +0.5 |
| 2 | SF | 9.1 | - | 15.9 | +6.8 |
| 1 | ARI | 7.3 | - | 15.6 | +8.3 |
Projections: ESPN 17.3 | LLM 15.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 21%
XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21%
Notes: MC: 21% BOOM / 53% MODERATE. XGB: 27% BOOM / 21% BUST. SNOW GAME (100% precip, 28F, 10mph wind). Weather suppresses passing upside significantly. Despite decent game total (46.5), snow conditions favor running game. Mode: MODERATE (weather-adjusted down). Projection: 15.0 pts (within MODERATE range 9-24).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DEN | 14.8 | 17.0 | 13.9 | -0.9 |
| 14 | CHI | 17.6 | 18.0 | 19.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 15.7 | 18.2 | 25.8 | +10.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 17.4 | - | 7.1 | -10.4 |
| 11 | NYG | 16.3 | - | 17.7 | +1.3 |
| 10 | PHI | 17.0 | - | 7.8 | -9.1 |
| 9 | CAR | 18.1 | - | 9.0 | -9.1 |
| 8 | PIT | 17.1 | - | 28.3 | +11.2 |
| 7 | ARI | 17.4 | - | 13.4 | -4.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 19.3 | - | 15.0 | -4.4 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 18.6 | - | 26.3 | +7.7 |
| 3 | CLE | 16.0 | - | 11.1 | -4.9 |
| 2 | WSH | 17.6 | - | 20.9 | +3.3 |
| 1 | DET | 14.9 | - | 15.9 | +1.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.1 | LLM 13.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22%
Notes: MC: 14% BOOM / 49% BUST / 37% MODERATE. XGB: 17% BOOM / 22% BUST. Practicing Thursday (ankle/foot). ATL defense rank 26. Good game total (48.5). May see increased targets if MHJ limited. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 13.0 pts (within MODERATE range 9-19).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | NO | 13.2 | 11.0 | 4.5 | -8.7 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 13.0 | 11.3 | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | - | 11.5 | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | - | 33.0 | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | - | 11.0 | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | - | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | - | 16.9 | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | - | 6.3 | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | - | 17.9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | - | 13.3 | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | - | 10.2 | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | - | 7.8 | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | - | 16.0 | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | - | 11.8 | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM 5.0
MC (Historical): OUT: 100%
XGB (This Week): Boom 24% | Bust 31%
Notes: MC: 39% BOOM / 37% BUST. XGB: 24% BOOM / 31% BUST. CONCUSSION PROTOCOL - not practicing Wed/Thu. TEN defense rank 29 (3rd toughest vs WR). Low game total (37.5). Per Reddit: "Rashee Rice (concussion) is not practicing on Thursday" [r/fantasyfootball]. HIGH RISK - may be OUT. IF ACTIVE: significantly limited effectiveness expected. Mode: BUST. Projection: 5.0 pts (within BUST range, reflecting injury risk). Monitor Friday report.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 17.2 | 11.0 | 12.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.7 |
| 13 | DAL | 18.1 | 18.4 | 29.4 | +11.3 |
| 12 | IND | 17.6 | - | 24.1 | +6.5 |
| 11 | DEN | 16.4 | - | 9.8 | -6.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 18.4 | - | 18.6 | +0.2 |
| 8 | WSH | 17.2 | - | 25.5 | +8.2 |
| 7 | LV | 13.7 | - | 23.2 | +9.5 |
| 6 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | BAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 8.7 | LLM 10.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 37%
Notes: MC: 14% BOOM / 61% MODERATE. XGB: 16% BOOM / 37% BUST. ELITE matchup vs KC (rank 6 - 6th most pts allowed to RBs). BUT low game total (37.5) limits opportunities. Conflicting signals - great matchup, bad environment. Mode: MODERATE (matchup upside capped by low total). Projection: 10.0 pts (within MODERATE range 5-14).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SF | 10.0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | -4.4 |
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | 8.4 | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | - | 6.5 | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | - | 8.4 | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | - | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | - | 17.2 | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | - | 7.0 | -0.8 |
| 6 | LV | 5.6 | - | 9.0 | +3.4 |
| 5 | ARI | 5.4 | - | 1.4 | -4.0 |
| 4 | HOU | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 5.7 | LLM 4.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 22%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 58%
Notes: MC: 22% BOOM / 40% BUST. XGB: 11% BOOM / 59% BUST. Already played TNF - JSN dropped 23.6 on them. Seattle offense efficient. Mode: BUST. Projection: 4.0 pts (actual from game).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DET | 4.2 | 4.0 | -1.0 | -5.2 |
| 14 | ARI | 6.9 | 9.0 | 6.0 | -0.9 |
| 13 | CAR | 7.5 | 10.0 | 1.0 | -6.5 |
| 12 | TB | 5.7 | - | 20.0 | +14.3 |
| 11 | SEA | 5.4 | - | 5.0 | -0.4 |
| 10 | SF | 6.4 | - | 5.0 | -1.4 |
| 9 | NO | 8.2 | - | 10.0 | +1.8 |
| 7 | JAX | 6.7 | - | 9.0 | +2.3 |
| 6 | BAL | 6.2 | - | 16.0 | +9.8 |
| 5 | SF | 7.0 | - | -2.0 | -9.0 |
| 4 | IND | 5.7 | - | 6.0 | +0.3 |
| 3 | PHI | 5.2 | - | 7.0 | +1.8 |
| 2 | TEN | 7.4 | - | 9.0 | +1.6 |
| 1 | HOU | 5.6 | - | 12.0 | +6.4 |
Projections: ESPN 7.5 | LLM 4.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%
XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 59%
Notes: MC: 18% BOOM / 61% BUST. XGB: 10% BOOM / 58% BUST. Both models agree on bust risk. MIN defense rank 17 (average), dome environment helps. Limited snap share and touches hurt floor. Mode: BUST. Projection: 4.0 pts (within BUST range 0-8).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | WSH | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.4 | -8.4 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NE | 6.3 | - | 19.2 | +12.9 |
| 12 | DET | 9.9 | - | 4.7 | -5.2 |
| 11 | GB | 9.6 | - | 17.7 | +8.1 |
| 10 | CHI | 9.7 | - | 10.3 | +0.6 |
| 9 | SF | 5.5 | - | 7.1 | +1.6 |
| 8 | PHI | 1.2 | - | 3.8 | +2.6 |
| 7 | DEN | 0.8 | - | 0.2 | -0.6 |
| 6 | PHI | 1.0 | - | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | NO | 6.0 | - | 3.4 | -2.6 |
| 4 | LAC | 7.4 | - | 2.8 | -4.6 |
| 3 | KC | 1.1 | - | 1.1 | +0.0 |
| 2 | DAL | 3.2 | - | 1.0 | -2.2 |
| 1 | WSH | 3.5 | - | 0.9 | -2.6 |
Projections: ESPN 9.3 | LLM 6.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 59%
Notes: MC: 3% BOOM / 70% BUST. XGB: 12% BOOM / 60% BUST. Both models agree on bust. Low game total (37.5), TEN defense rank 26 (solid vs RBs). Committee usage limits upside. Mode: BUST. Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range 0-11).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 7.2 | - | 2.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 8.3 | - | 3.0 | -5.3 |
| 13 | DAL | 9.7 | - | 5.3 | -4.4 |
| 12 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | WSH | 11.4 | - | 5.8 | -5.6 |
| 7 | LV | 11.5 | - | 12.4 | +0.9 |
| 6 | DET | 8.9 | - | 6.1 | -2.8 |
| 5 | JAX | 7.7 | - | 8.6 | +0.9 |
| 4 | BAL | 9.2 | - | 12.8 | +3.6 |
| 3 | NYG | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 2 | PHI | 10.9 | - | 3.9 | -7.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 12.8 | - | 4.8 | -8.0 |
Projections: ESPN 11.2 | LLM 13.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 10%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52%
Notes: MC: 10% BOOM / 66% MODERATE. XGB: 13% BOOM / 52% BUST. CONFLICTING: Elite matchup (CHI rank 30 vs WR) BUT snow game (100% precip). Bears WRs Odunze/Burden OUT - Packers may throw to stay ahead. Snow typically hurts passing, but elite matchup too good. Mode: MODERATE (weather-adjusted from potential boom). Projection: 13.0 pts (within MODERATE range 7-20).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DEN | 10.0 | - | 10.5 | +0.5 |
| 14 | CHI | 7.7 | - | 9.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | ARI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | CLE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | WSH | 11.3 | - | 0.0 | -11.3 |
| 1 | DET | 11.2 | - | 13.5 | +2.3 |
Jaguars D/ST (D/ST): 48% boom probability
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% | Threat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars D/ST | D/ST | JAX | 5.6 | 9.1 | 48% | 32% | 20% | HIGH | |
| DK Metcalf | WR | PIT | 13.5 | 12.7 | 30% | 50% | 20% | MEDIUM | |
| Baker Mayfield | QB | TB | 16.6 | 17.2 | 18% | 59% | 23% | LOW | |
| Trey McBride | TE | ARI | 16.8 | 17.2 | 17% | 63% | 20% | LOW | |
| Harrison Butker | K | KC | 8.0 | 8.3 | 16% | 26% | 57% | LOW | |
| Michael Carter | RB | ARI | 11.0 | 8.8 | 16% | 45% | 39% | LOW | |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | CAR | 15.2 | 13.1 | 14% | 59% | 27% | LOW | |
| Michael Wilson | WR | ARI | 13.4 | 12.5 | 8% | 36% | 56% | LOW | |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | 23.9 | 20.5 | 7% | 23% | 70% | LOW |
Jaguars D/ST: MC (BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 42%) | XGB (Boom 48% | Bust 20%)
DK Metcalf: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 21%) | XGB (Boom 30% | Bust 20%)
Baker Mayfield: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 52% | BOOM: 14%) | XGB (Boom 18% | Bust 23%)
Trey McBride: MC (BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 26%) | XGB (Boom 17% | Bust 20%)
Harrison Butker: MC (BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 46% | BOOM: 25%) | XGB (Boom 16% | Bust 57%)
Michael Carter: MC (BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 30%) | XGB (Boom 16% | Bust 39%)
Rico Dowdle: MC (BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 19%) | XGB (Boom 14% | Bust 27%)
Michael Wilson: MC (BUST: 55% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 16%) | XGB (Boom 8% | Bust 56%)
Jahmyr Gibbs: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 24%) | XGB (Boom 7% | Bust 70%)
Season Phase: Playoffs - Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster
Semi-finals roster optimization - maximize ceiling for championship week positioning
Most consistent TE on waivers. Rolling avg (10.5) above season avg (9.9). Better floor than Juwan Johnson who faces wind at MetLife. Week 17: vs BUF (17th vs TE) - solid playoff matchup.
Week 17: vs BUF - 17th vs TE, steady option
SCORCHING HOT trend - rolling avg 11.1 vs season avg 3.6 (208% improvement). Week 17 vs DET is tough but IND matchup this week is solid. Drop Rams D/ST who just gave up 23.6 to JSN.
Week 17: vs DET - tough but they are peaking at right time
Already played TNF - check actual score. Deep threat with big-play upside. Neutral trend shows consistency. Could be WR insurance if Rashee Rice ruled OUT.
Week 17: Check Week 17 matchup if picking up
HOT STREAK - rolling 12.7 vs season 8.2. CIN offense moving ball. Could upgrade from Jason Myers (2.0 TNF). Week 17 at DEN - dome game, reliable.
Week 17: at DEN - dome game, high floor
Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.
Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoffs mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs D/ST | D/ST | 7.6 | 53% | 18% | 0.0% | |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | 9.1 | 52% | 17% | 0.0% | |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 12.0 | 47% | 20% | 0.0% | |
| Jayden Daniels | QB | 0.0 | 34% | 30% | 0.0% | |
| Zach Ertz | TE | 10.2 | 28% | 24% | 0.0% | |
| Evan Engram | TE | 7.9 | 27% | 24% | 0.0% | |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | K | 10.7 | 26% | 26% | 0.0% | |
| Commanders D/ST | D/ST | 7.8 | 24% | 38% | 0.0% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | 8.0 | 22% | 28% | 0.0% | |
| Patriots D/ST | D/ST | 8.8 | 22% | 43% | 0.0% | |
| Bears D/ST | D/ST | 8.5 | 20% | 30% | 0.0% | |
| Matt Prater | K | 0.0 | 19% | 54% | 0.0% | |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | 10.0 | 18% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| Devin Neal | RB | 9.6 | 18% | 45% | 0.0% | |
| Eddy Pineiro | K | 10.0 | 17% | 45% | 0.0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 0.0 | OUT:100% | 34% | 30% | |
| Justin Fields | 16.4 | BUST:40%, MODERATE:31%, BOOM:30% | 14% | 50% | |
| Sam Darnold | 15.4 | BUST:38%, MODERATE:37%, BOOM:24% | 13% | 44% | |
| Kyler Murray | 16.9 | BUST:17%, MODERATE:58%, BOOM:25% | 11% | 54% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 12.0 | BUST:47%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:14% | 47% | 20% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | 8.0 | BUST:68%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:3% | 22% | 28% | |
| Devin Neal | 9.6 | BUST:35%, MODERATE:46%, BOOM:19% | 18% | 45% | |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 7.4 | BUST:41%, MODERATE:56%, BOOM:2% | 16% | 45% | |
| Trey Benson | 8.8 | BUST:33%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:24% | 12% | 57% | |
| Emanuel Wilson | 7.7 | BUST:56%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:10% | 9% | 60% | |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 9.4 | BUST:54%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:12% | 8% | 61% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 10.0 | BUST:46%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:12% | 18% | 48% | |
| Quentin Johnston | 11.8 | BUST:29%, MODERATE:54%, BOOM:18% | 15% | 39% | |
| Garrett Wilson | 14.9 | BUST:38%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:22% | 15% | 48% | |
| Rashid Shaheed | 10.3 | BUST:28%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:30% | 14% | 53% | |
| Keenan Allen | 11.7 | BUST:69%, MODERATE:22%, BOOM:9% | 9% | 56% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 10.2 | BUST:17%, MODERATE:50%, BOOM:34% | 28% | 24% | |
| Evan Engram | 7.9 | BUST:34%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:20% | 27% | 24% | |
| Hunter Henry | 9.6 | BUST:51%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12% | 8% | 62% | |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 9.4 | BUST:39%, MODERATE:47%, BOOM:14% | 8% | 58% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | 10.7 | 26% | 26% | |
| Matt Prater | 0.0 | 19% | 54% | |
| Eddy Pineiro | 10.0 | 17% | 45% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs D/ST | 7.6 | 53% | 18% | |
| Chargers D/ST | 9.1 | 52% | 17% | |
| Commanders D/ST | 7.8 | 24% | 38% |
Win Probability
Floor: -40.4 pts | Median: +1.7 pts | Ceiling: +42.6 pts
Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)
Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | MED | 21.0 | 4.5-28.0 | ↑15+: 66% | ↓5-: 11% | |
| Bucky Irving | RB | HIGH | 14.0 | 5.0-23.5 | ↑15+: 40% | ↓5-: 10% | |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | HIGH | 13.0 | 3.6-24.4 | ↑15+: 34% | ↓5-: 18% | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | MED | 23.6 | 6.2-30.3 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 5% | |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | HIGH | 13.0 | 4.8-25.1 | ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 11% | |
| Jameson Williams | WR | HIGH | 22.0 | 4.3-26.0 | ↑15+: 51% | ↓5-: 14% | |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | HIGH | 9.0 | 3.0-16.6 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 22% | |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 12.0 | 0.9-18.1 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 27% | |
| Jason Myers | K | MED | 2.0 | 5.4-18.8 | ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 8% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | QB | MED | 15.0 | 6.6-27.6 | ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 5% | |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | HIGH | 10.0 | 2.6-17.8 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 29% | |
| Devin Singletary | RB | HIGH | 4.0 | 0.6-18.0 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 54% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | HIGH | 6.0 | 2.2-15.1 | ↑15+: 10% | ↓5-: 43% | |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | HIGH | 15.0 | 3.8-21.8 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 17% | |
| Jayden Reed | WR | HIGH | 13.0 | 4.6-21.7 | ↑15+: 23% | ↓5-: 13% | |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 4.0 | 1.1-18.2 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 34% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | WR | LOW | 5.0 | 0.0-0.0 | ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | QB | MED | 17.1 | 6.3-27.7 | ↑15+: 58% | ↓5-: 5% | |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | HIGH | 20.6 | 7.5-39.7 | ↑15+: 61% | ↓5-: 1% | |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | HIGH | 13.1 | 3.4-27.4 | ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 17% | |
| Michael Carter | RB | HIGH | 8.8 | 1.2-17.5 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 33% | |
| DK Metcalf | WR | HIGH | 12.7 | 4.9-22.4 | ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 11% | |
| Michael Wilson | WR | HIGH | 12.5 | 3.3-30.1 | ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 27% | |
| Trey McBride | TE | MED | 17.2 | 8.3-29.5 | ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 0% | |
| Jaguars D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 9.1 | 0.5-17.7 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 30% | |
| Harrison Butker | K | HIGH | 8.2 | 2.9-14.7 | ↑15+: 9% | ↓5-: 26% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | HIGH | 14.8 | 5.8-25.5 | ↑15+: 45% | ↓5-: 7% | |
| Kareem Hunt | RB | HIGH | 10.3 | 2.4-19.9 | ↑15+: 24% | ↓5-: 29% | |
| Rome Odunze | WR | LOW | 0.0 | 0.0-0.0 | ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% | |
| Jordan Addison | WR | HIGH | 12.2 | 5.3-20.9 | ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 8% | |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | HIGH | 10.3 | 2.6-20.3 | ↑15+: 23% | ↓5-: 26% | |
| Darren Waller | TE | HIGH | 12.2 | 3.1-23.5 | ↑15+: 40% | ↓5-: 26% | |
| Colby Parkinson | TE | HIGH | 9.3 | 2.3-18.6 | ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 32% |
| Player | Position | BOOM | MODERATE | BUST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | 17% @ 24.3 | 59% @ 14.3 | 25% @ 5.9 | 13.9 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 27% @ 28.6 | 44% @ 18.4 | 29% @ 7.6 | 18.1 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 14% @ 27.6 | 37% @ 13.7 | 49% @ 7.0 | 12.4 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 25% @ 23.1 | 43% @ 12.1 | 32% @ 5.2 | 12.6 |
| Jason Myers | K | 25% @ 18.2 | 44% @ 11.8 | 31% @ 6.5 | 11.7 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 30% @ 14.9 | 45% @ 8.8 | 25% @ 3.7 | 9.4 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 29% @ 24.4 | 44% @ 15.7 | 28% @ 5.4 | 15.3 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 74% @ 21.4 | 2% @ 14.7 | 23% @ 5.9 | 17.6 |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | 36% @ 15.0 | 42% @ 8.4 | 22% @ 2.8 | 9.5 |
Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)
| Player | Pos | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | 4.2 | 12.0 | BOOM | 54.3% | 29.9% | 15.8% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 14.2 | 15.0 | MODERATE | 41.7% | 35.6% | 22.7% |
| Jordan Love | QB | 17.3 | 15.0 | MODERATE | 26.7% | 52.3% | 20.9% |
| Jason Myers | K | 8.1 | 2.0 | BUST | 23.7% | 54.8% | 21.5% |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 0.0 | 5.0 | BUST | 23.6% | 45.1% | 31.2% |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 9.1 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 18.1% | 25.4% | 56.5% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 13.1 | 13.0 | MODERATE | 16.9% | 61.5% | 21.6% |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 8.7 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 16.4% | 46.7% | 37.0% |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 18.8 | 21.0 | BOOM | 14.1% | 48.6% | 37.3% |
| Jayden Reed | WR | 11.2 | 13.0 | MODERATE | 12.9% | 35.1% | 52.1% |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 15.2 | 14.0 | MODERATE | 12.8% | 39.0% | 48.2% |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 15.9 | 22.0 | BOOM | 12.2% | 44.1% | 43.7% |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | 9.3 | 6.0 | BUST | 11.3% | 29.5% | 59.2% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 19.9 | 23.6 | BOOM | 11.2% | 65.8% | 23.0% |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 5.7 | 4.0 | BUST | 10.8% | 30.7% | 58.5% |
| Devin Singletary | RB | 7.5 | 4.0 | BUST | 9.8% | 31.1% | 59.2% |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 13.2 | 13.0 | MODERATE | 8.7% | 32.6% | 58.7% |
Week 16 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.
| Rank | Team | Record | PF (Total) | PA (Total) | +/- | This Week | Streak | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 10-5 | 1861.3 | 1676.5 | +184.8 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L1 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 10-5 | 1771.1 | 1791.0 | -19.9 | 0.0 vs 25.6 | W2 | 100.0% |
| 3 | Valued Customers ← | 9-6 | 1848.4 | 1558.6 | +289.8 | 25.6 vs 0.0 | W5 | 100.0% |
| 4 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 8-7 | 1759.9 | 1725.0 | +35.0 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W1 | 100.0% |
| 5 | Wookie of the Year | 8-7 | 1741.3 | 1731.9 | +9.4 | 35.4 vs 0.0 | L1 | 0.0% |
| 6 | Meat Pistols | 8-7 | 1515.0 | 1700.3 | -185.3 | 0.0 vs 35.4 | L2 | 0.0% |
| 7 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 7-8 | 1730.5 | 1734.4 | -3.8 | 0.0 vs 59.7 | L2 | 0.0% |
| 8 | Moms rules | 7-8 | 1724.6 | 1778.5 | -53.9 | 59.7 vs 0.0 | W1 | 0.0% |
| 9 | Smooth Roosters | 7-8 | 1664.4 | 1677.8 | -13.4 | 0.0 vs 30.9 | W3 | 0.0% |
| 10 | The Warsaw Pact | 6-9 | 1684.4 | 1752.0 | -67.6 | 30.9 vs 0.0 | W2 | 0.0% |
| 11 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 6-9 | 1584.0 | 1689.6 | -105.6 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L5 | 0.0% |
| 12 | Auto DraftKings | 4-11 | 1697.9 | 1767.4 | -69.5 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L4 | 0.0% |
| Away Team | Score | Score | Home Team | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Ryan's Rowdy Team |
| 4th and pinches | 0.0 | @ | 25.6 | Valued Customers |
| Wookie of the Year | 35.4 | @ | 0.0 | Meat Pistols |
| Torta Pounders Football Club | 0.0 | @ | 59.7 | Moms rules |
| Smooth Roosters | 0.0 | @ | 30.9 | The Warsaw Pact |
| Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Auto DraftKings |
Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.
WR/FLEX DECISION - MHJ vs McMillan vs Jayden Reed
VERDICT: START in FLEX
McMillan vs TB (13.0 proj):
VERDICT: BENCH
Jayden Reed @ CHI (13.0 proj):
LOCKED-IN STARTERS: JSN (23.6 pts banked), Jameson Williams, Brissett, Chargers D/ST CONFIDENT STARTERS: Bucky Irving, Omarion Hampton, MHJ ACCEPTABLE: Juwan Johnson (250k incentive), Jason Myers (TNF 2.0 - already played) AVOID: Rams D/ST, Isiah Pacheco, Devin Singletary
Positive Buzz: Jacoby Brissett, Jameson Williams, Tyjae Spears, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Negative Buzz: Rashee Rice, Marvin Harrison Jr. (snap concerns)
Mixed Buzz: Jordan Love (snow game), Jayden Reed (snow but elite matchup)
No waiver recommendations this week.
No major injury concerns.
Multi-agent analysis for strategic decisions (Week 16)
Live data from completed games
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent | RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | 23.9 | - | 0.0 | -23.9 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 15.9 | 22.0 | 0.0 | -22.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 18.8 | 21.0 | 0.0 | -21.0 |
| Opponent | TE | Trey McBride | 16.8 | - | 0.0 | -16.8 |
| Opponent | QB | Baker Mayfield | 16.6 | - | 0.0 | -16.6 |
| Opponent | RB | Rico Dowdle | 15.2 | - | 0.0 | -15.2 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 17.3 | 15.0 | 0.0 | -15.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 14.2 | 15.0 | 0.0 | -15.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 15.2 | 14.0 | 0.0 | -14.0 |
| Opponent | WR | DK Metcalf | 13.5 | - | 0.0 | -13.5 |
| Opponent | WR | Michael Wilson | 13.4 | - | 0.0 | -13.4 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 13.1 | 13.0 | 0.0 | -13.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 13.2 | 13.0 | 0.0 | -13.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jayden Reed | 11.2 | 13.0 | 0.0 | -13.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Chargers D/ST | 4.2 | 12.0 | 0.0 | -12.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Michael Carter | 11.0 | - | 0.0 | -11.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 8.7 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.1 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Opponent | K | Harrison Butker | 8.0 | - | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 9.3 | 6.0 | 0.0 | -6.0 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Jaguars D/ST | 5.6 | - | 0.0 | -5.6 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 0.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | -5.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 7.5 | 4.0 | 0.0 | -4.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 19.9 | 23.6 | 23.6 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 5.7 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| Free Agent | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Free Agent | K | Ka'imi Fairbairn | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Free Agent | K | Eddy Pineiro | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Patriots D/ST | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Chargers D/ST | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Chiefs D/ST | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Final review from run_014 (2025-12-15)
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.5 | 10.0 | 24.0 | +14.0 |
| Free Agent | TE | Harold Fannin Jr. | 0.0 | - | 12.0 | +12.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 13.9 | 17.0 | 26.4 | +9.4 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Steelers D/ST | 0.0 | - | 9.0 | +9.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 13.2 | 13.0 | 4.5 | -8.5 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Bears D/ST | 6.6 | 10.0 | 18.0 | +8.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 15.2 | 16.0 | 8.1 | -7.9 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 10.8 | 10.0 | 2.4 | -7.6 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 13.9 | 13.0 | 20.6 | +7.6 |
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 20.6 | 25.0 | 18.3 | -6.7 |
| Our Team | WR | Luther Burden III | 8.1 | 8.0 | 14.4 | +6.4 |
| Our Team | QB | Marcus Mariota | 18.1 | 21.0 | 14.7 | -6.3 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 4.2 | 5.0 | -1.0 | -6.0 |
| Free Agent | RB | Chuba Hubbard | 0.0 | - | 4.8 | +4.8 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.7 | 11.0 | 7.0 | -4.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 17.2 | 16.0 | 12.1 | -3.9 |
| Our Team | TE | Hunter Henry | 10.3 | 6.0 | 2.8 | -3.2 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 11.7 | 10.0 | 7.5 | -2.5 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 10.1 | 7.0 | 5.6 | -1.4 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 14.8 | 14.0 | 13.9 | -0.1 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.
No discrepancies detected this week.